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THE WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Picks for the Safeway Open 2019

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  • THE WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Picks for the Safeway Open 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “Just play. Have fun. Enjoy the game.” - Michael Jordan

    PICKS FOR THE SAFEWAY OPEN 2019

    Welcome to the start of the fall swing of the 2018-19 PGA Tour season! I had decent last season making 204 picks over 29 tournaments in the 2018 calendar year. Over those 29 events, I was able to pick six winners. In addition, 76.96% of the 204 picks made the cut and nearly half (47.06%) of the picks finished in the top 25 making for good cash lineups. Hopefully, I can continue with some success and pick up even more winners. Let’s start with the first tournament of the fall season and get grinding!

    Brief Tournament Information
    • 144-man field
    • Weak field
    • Standard cut of 70 plus ties (range - 0 to -2)
    • Winning score range (2015-2018): -15 to -18 (average 15.75)
    • Stats I’m considering this week (courtesy of Fantasynational.com) on Poa (last 24 Rds):
      • P5 scoring (P5). There are four of them. All scorable. Essential.
      • Ball Striking (BS). This is a ball strikers course with approach shot being more important.
      • Fairways Gained. Even though this is not an accuracy track nor is distance important (average on Tour), winners here have gained over a stroke on the entire the field.
      • GIR Gained. Not as strong of as a correlation, but winners here have gained over a stroke on cut makers, while those golfers that T20 still gain over a half a stroke on cut makers.
      • As usual every week, T2G and SG:APP is key.

    My Top Picks This Week

    DK - Above 10k

    Patrick Cantlay (DK $11600, FD $11900, Odds 14/1) - Cantlay had a fantastic season and has been in excellent form not missing a cut since June and three top 8s in ten events. He is the most expensive but is my top-ranked golfer in all categories. I think he is a solid play in all formats.

    DK - 9k

    Adam Hadwin (DK $9400, FD $10500, Odds 33/1) - Hadwin had a nice resurgence during the playoffs finishing no worse than T21 despite not having enough FedEx points to make it to the Tour Championship. In addition, he ranks in the top third in this field in most of the stats I’m considering this week. He has played Silverado three times, missing one cut and placing T41 and T53. However, current form and skill set is more important for me this week, and I think Hadwin has the ability to do well here.

    DK - 8k

    Luke List (DK $8800, FD $9600, Odds 50/1) - Despite a roller coaster of an end to his season, List still projects well for me this week. In his 23 events he played since January, he has eight missed cuts but four top 12s, including a runner-up at the Honda. He is an elite ball striker and excellent T2G. His flaw is his putting. However, if he can putt even with the field, then he should be near the top of the leaderboard.

    Kevin Tway (DK $8700, FD $9700, Odds 50/1) - Tway comes into the new season in decent form making seven straight cuts through the Dell Technologies Championship including a best T6 at the Travelers. He is solid from T2G and with his approach shots and is capable of scoring on the par 5s. He hasn’t finished better than T40 in his three attempts at Silverado but his form is much better coming into this event this year than in years past. He should surpass his prior finishes without difficulty.

    DK - 7k and below

    Chez Reavie (DK $7600, FD $9500, Odds 60/1) - Reavie was a fantasy darling during the being of the year, faltered a little bit later in the year with five consecutive missed, but then had a nice revival during the his last four events including a T12 at the PGA, a T20 at the Northern Trust, a MC at the Dell and a T38 at the BMW. He ranks well in all the stat categories I’m considering this week including first in fairways gained in this field. He is an excellent value who has never missed a cut at Silverado.

    Danny Lee (DK $7500, FD $8700, Odds 80/1) - Continuing with the current form trend, Lee had made the cut in his last five events through the Dell Technologies Championship including a T6 at the Canadian Open. He has made the cut at Silverado during his four starts here and has a T16 as his best finish. He ranks in the top third in all of the categories I’m considering this week, and he makes for an excellent value play.


    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week and hope one (or more) of you readers take down a GPP!




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