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Johns Jewels Week 5 NFL DFS - Yeldon Make Me Lose My Mind


  • Johns Jewels Week 5 NFL DFS - Yeldon Make Me Lose My Mind

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    Here we are with the fifth NFL edition of Johns Jewels. A whole lot of chalk managed to hit last week so we saw an unusually high cash line but with pricing adjustments now in place hopefully we will see a bit less chalk this week. As usual the focus of the Jewels articles is building cash game lineups with a slight emphasis on GPP's. As this was written Tuesday there is a good chance there will be some changes before Sunday. Be sure to tune into the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast with myself and @nickmarroDFS to get our top wide receiver/quarterback combinations, cash game locks, and bold calls. The podcast can be found on itunes, stitcher or soundcloud.


    Ben Roethlisberger | $6900 DraftKings | $8400 FanDuel
    The Steelers will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing primetime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. Roethlisberger gets to face a struggling Atlanta secondary this week at home which is where Big Ben tends to do much better. The Falcons are allowing an average of 25.5 fantasy points to opposing QB’s over the first month of the season. They are allowing 3 touchdowns for every interception they get. This game has the highest total on the slate and should be a shootout in what profiles as a must win game for both teams.

    Matthew Stafford | $5700 DraftKings | $7600 FanDuel
    Coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys the Detroit Lions are back at home to face divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has some stellar history against this Packers team. He has averaged 27 DKFP in his last 4 meetings with GB throwing 10 TD’s and just 2 INT’s. Vegas expects this game to be close which means that Stafford should hopefully be throwing deep into the fourth quarter. At his discounted price on DraftKings Stafford profiles as a good value QB for cash games or tournaments.

    Joe Flacco | $5400 DraftKings | $7100 FanDuel
    No. No that is not a typo. Joe Flacco is in the Dawg Pound taking on the Browns this Sunday. Flacco and the Ravens have been using their new group of receivers very effectively in the first four weeks. Flacco has thrown for 8 TD’s with just 2 INT’s. After four weeks last season his TD:INT ratio was 1:1. The Browns secondary struggles primarily with tight ends, a position the Ravens are very deep at. Pairing Flacco with one of his top receivers or even rookie TE Hayden Hurst who is expected to be active could be the low owned play that helps take down a tournament.

    Other QBs to consider will be mentioned on the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast

    Running Backs

    Melvin Gordon | $8600 DraftKings | $8700 FanDuel
    Prime matchup for Chargers star running-back Melvin Gordon who will be at the StubHub Center facing the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders front seven has been struggling without Khalil Mack allowing 5.6 YPC which ranks 31st in the NFL and 28th overall in DVOA. This game has one of the higher totals on the slate and with the Chargers as 5.5 point favourites playing Gordon makes sense both in the matchup as well as the game script. The PPR scoring benefits him more on DraftKings based on the fact he had 11 targets last week. With that said I still like him on FanDuel for cash games with his floor.

    Saquon Barkley | $7700 DraftKings | $7900 FanDuel
    The Giants and Saquon Barkley are travelling to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is another team that has struggled against the run giving up 4.9 YPC coming in at 20th in DVOA. Barkley has seen a slight price drop coming off a week where he saw just 16 touches. He should be back up over 20 touches this weekend. I expect Barkley to continue to play a large role in the passing game and with his price drop makes him even more appealing. Can be considered for cash games or tournaments on either site.

    T.J Yeldon | $5600 DraftKings | $6500 FanDuel
    One of the chalky value running backs on the board this weekend is T.J Yeldon. The Jaguars will be without Leonard Fournette for the foreseeable future which is a massive boost to Yeldon. The Chiefs are 30th in DVOA against the run and dead last in opponent yards per rush attempt at 5.7. The Chiefs have also allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing backs with 385 yards through the air. Yeldon is a dual threat both on the ground and through the air and will be a popular cash game option on both sites.

    Aaron Jones | $4300 DraftKings | $6100 FanDuel
    One good value back to consider particularly on DraftKings is Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones. Although Jones has been splitting carries with Jamaal Williams it appears that Jones is the better back of the pair. Detroit is one of the worst teams against the run giving up over 157 YPG so far on the ground. Jones should continue to get more and more of the touches in this backfield and at his price on DraftKings he provides great salary relief for GPP’s.

    Other RBs to consider will be mentioned on the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast

    Wide Receivers

    Antonio Brown | $9100 DraftKings | $9000 FanDuel
    The top wide receiver option on the board this week for price is Antonio Brown. Brown has not been putting up his usual production to start off the season mainly because of JuJu Smith Schuster. At Brown’s price on DraftKings my interest immediately shifts to Smith Schuster but on FanDuel Antonio Brown is the one you want. With how popular Ben Roethlisberger is going to be it shouldn’t really be much of a shock to anyone that they are going to want to pair him with one of his receivers for cash. Antonio Brown is probably that guy to pair him with on FanDuel but not so much on DraftKings.

    Golden Tate | $6700 DraftKings | $7400 FanDuel
    Heading into week 5 against the Packers Golden Tate is leading the Lions in percentage of team targets at 26.3%. He will likely be seeing a lot of Jaire Alexander on Sunday which profiles as a very positive matchup for Tate with Alexander surrendering catches at a 70% clip. Tate is a good option for cash games to run by himself with the number of targets he has been getting or he can easily be paired with Matt Stafford as well.

    Dede Westbrook | $4700 Draftkings | $5900 FanDuel
    One value option I will be looking to target this week at wide receiver is Dede Westbrook. He is coming off a big 130 yard week where he racked up 13 targets. This week he gets to face the Chiefs and Kendall Fuller which profiles as one of the best matchups on the slate per PFF. The Chiefs secondary is full of holes and Westbrook is emerging as Blake Bortles favourite target. At $4700 the risk/reward for Dede is just too much to be ignored especially in GPP’s.

    Other WRs to consider will be mentioned on the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast

    Tight Ends

    Jimmy Graham | $4700 DraftKings | $6100 FanDuel
    Packers tight end Jimmy Graham had the chance to do his first Lambeau leap last weekend. This Sunday the Packers are on the road in Detroit. Graham has seen his targets pick up over the last couple weeks being targeted 6+ times in the last 3 weeks. If Randall Cobb remains out and Geronimo Allison is sidelined with a concussion this will only boost Graham’s value. There are a lot of solid cheap tight end options out there this week but if you’re looking for a safe mid priced guy, look at Jimmy Graham.

    Vance McDonald | $3700 DraftKings | $4600 FanDuel
    One cheap tight end I will be considering this week is Steelers TE Vance McDonald who has been seeing an increase in targets with 15 over the last three weeks and a touchdown. Though the Falcons overall has been stout against tight ends thus far giving up just 194 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Eifert last Sunday I think that Vance McDonald is a good value option either to pair with Roethlisberger or to run by himself.

    Other TEs to consider will be mentioned on the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast

    Defense/Special Teams

    Los Angeles Rams | $3800 DraftKings | $4700 FanDuel
    The undefeated Rams are at CenturyLink Field this Sunday facing the Seahawks and their swiss cheese offensive line. Mind you, the Seahawks line has not been as bad over the last two weeks compared to the first two but that’s not saying a whole lot. Seattle is implied to score just 21.8 points and the Rams front seven has been solid generating 9 sacks over the first month of the season. The Rams defence certainly comes with a safe floor and should be considered in this spot but they may not be the best point per dollar play especially on FanDuel.

    Tennessee Titans | $4000 DraftKings | $3900 FanDuel
    One of the best point per dollar defences this weekend on FanDuel in particular is the Tennessee Titans. They are facing Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. In Allens first three starts he has been sacked 15 times with 4 interceptions to go along with that. Titans are top 10 team in sacks so far this season with 12 and 3 interceptions. I prefer the Rams over on DraftKings but on FanDuel the Titans price is difficult to ignore. Locking them in for cash games over there.

    Last edited by JohnHuish; 10-03-2018, 08:34 PM.
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