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THE WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Picks for the RSM Classic 2019

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  • THE WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Picks for the RSM Classic 2019





    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up.” – Babe Ruth

    PICKS FOR THE RSM CLASSIC 2019

    Brief Recap of Last Tournament Pics - WGC - HSBC Championships 2019
    Golfer Position DK Pts
    T.Finau 2 109.5
    J.Rose 3 97.5
    P.Cantlay T7 75.0
    A.Scott T18 73.0
    K.Stanley T22 66.5
    J.Suri T64 39.0

    Cumulative Picks (2018-19) - #Picks - 24, #Tournaments - 4, Winner - 1, Top 5 - 5 (20.83%), Top 10 - 7 (29.17%), Top 25 - 13 (54.17%), Made Cut - 23 (95.83%)

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with 150+ golfers with a standard cut of 70 plus ties after two rounds.
    • Each golfer will play one round on each of the courses with the final two rounds played exclusively on the Seaside Course
    • Since the advent of the two-course rotation, the average finishing score has been 18.
    • Subsequently, the average cut line has been -5 since the tournament has changed to the two-course rotation.
    • As with most of the fall swing, stat trends to focus on can be a little tricky. Using fantasynational.com’s time machine stats, the top finishers are all over he map in strokes gained to par stats to birdies rates. This week though, accuracy and getting onto the green should be key based on the layout of the course. Birdies will be important if winning scores are going to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Conversely, that means that golfers need to avoid bogeys. As usual, T2G and SG:APP are always important every week.


    My Top Picks This Week

    DK - Above 10k

    Webb Simpson (DK $11800, FD $12200, Odds 9/1) - Simpson is the class of the field and priced as so. His form his great with three top 15s in his last five events over the last twelve weeks. Except for his WD last year, he has two top 7s in five starts at the RSM since 2010. He is the class of the field in all stat categories this week. Solid play all around.

    DK - 9k

    C.T. Pan (DK $9700, FD $10400, Odds 22/1) - Pan has been in great form in the last 12 weeks including a top 4 in his last seven events. Course history is great with a T13 last year and a T6 the year before that. Solid in all stat categories except in putting and his short game. However, combining all factors, I don’t believe his misgivings in his short game will hinder another good performance this year.

    DK - 8k

    Chris Kirk (DK $8500, FD $10000, Odds 50/1) - Kirk has been a solid T2G master whose only hindrance from finishing high on the leaderboard is his putting. Otherwise, he has been a cut master despite missing the cut in the first two events of the fall swing. On a positive note, he is somewhat of a horse for the course including two top 4s since 2014 and a win in 2013. At near average salary, he is worthy of a spot on any roster.

    Jamie Lovemark (DK $8100, FD $9600, Odds 60/1) - Lovemark had a lackluster 2018 season but he still sports a good skill set from T2G and can make birdies in bunches. His course history is decent with two top 9s and one MC in three starts at the RSM since 2015. I could see Lovemark jumpstart his new season with a top another top 10.

    DK - 7k and below

    Stewart Cink (DK $7700, FD $9800, Odds 60/1) - Ol’ Stewie has had a great second half of the 2018 season including three top 4s since June. The fall swing has not been as fruitful, but his course history is good including four straight made cuts at the RSM and a top 10 in 2016. He’s not the longest of hitters but his T2G is sufficient enough that another top 10 is not out of the question which enough to make value at his salary.

    Brian Gay (DK $7500, FD $9100, Odds 80/1) - Gay had a renaissance of a season in 2018 including five top 10 performances (to match his five MC). He is the midst of a 10 consecutive cut streak starting back at the Barbasol in July. He also finished T3 last year at the RSM. He is in the top third in this field in all stat categories considered. I think he can be a sneaky play to make the cut and has the upside for a high finish.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week and hope one (or more) of you readers take down a GPP!


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