Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii 2019

Collapse
X
Collapse

  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP

    “IT SHOULD ALL BE WON OR LOST HERE” JACK NICKLAUS


    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE SONY OPEN 2019

    Hello and welcome DFSChat family! With NFL winding down, I am back from an extended hiatus from PGA just in time for the first full field event - The Sony Open! I have revised my format of the article to include a course preview and picks into one article due to time constraints. I had reduced my exposure to PGA during the fall swing as I had been spending more time with NFL but still managed to pick the winner of the Safeway and get 50% of my picks in the top 25 which is great for cash games. Hopefully we can get more winners as we hit the main PGA season.

    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - #Tournaments - 5, #Picks - 30, Winner - 1, Top 5 - 6 (20.0%), Top 10 - 8 (26.7%), Top 25 - 15 (50.0%), Made Cut - 27(90.0%).

    The Course - Waialae Country Club

    We are on the island of Oahu where the beautiful Waialae Country Club is located in a quiet neighborhood of Honolulu. It was established in 1927 and designed initially by Seth Raynor with revisions in 1992 by Desmond Muirhead. Waialae CC is a par 70 and measures 7,020 yards. There are three par 4s and four par 2s. The hole breakdowns are as follows:
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 2
    Par 4 400-450 5
    Par 4 450-500 5
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 2
    Total 18

    Course Data (2018)



    Course Data by Par (2018)



    I generated this new chart and reorganized it by par to help visualize where the scoring occurs so we can find golfers who typically excel in those ranges (eg. in this case, the shorter par 4s and par 5s are where most of the scoring opportunities were made last year.)

    Course Stats
    • Par 70
    • 7,044 yards
    • Architect - Seth Raynor (1927), Desmond Muirhead (1992)
    • Greens - Tifdwarf Bermudagrass (Stimpmeter - 11)
    • GIR ~67% (easier than avg)
    • Waialae features wide open fairways lined with a variety of tropical trees and 83 strategically placed bunkers near landing areas along the fairway
    • Being a coastal course, many holes have magnificent views of the Pacific Ocean including the signature hole (hole 8) which is entirely bordered by the Pacific Ocean.

    Few Observed Stat Trends (based on 2018 data)
    • There are only two par 5s this week but they were the easiest holes on the course last year. Birdie rates were well over 50% and eagle rates approaching 10%. Combined, the two par 5s played 1.40 strokes under par. Thus, all golfers will score low or find themselves falling behind the field.
    • The toughest holes are the longer par 4s with holes 13 and 6 playing as the two most difficult on the course. On average, bogey or worse rates for these par 4s approaches 20%. Par is a good score on these holes and avoiding bogeys will be advantageous.
    • The rest of the scoring will come from the shorter par 4s especially holes 10 and 15 which are under 400 yards. On average these seven par 4s have a birdie rate of over 21%. Those golfers who excel on the shorter par 4s should feast and score low.
    • Overall, this is a relatively easy course ranking 39th of 51 courses ranked last year relative to par. It played 1.105 strokes under par last year.

    Featured Holes

    Hole 13 - Akau (Right) (Par 4, 477 yards)



    This hole was originally played as a par 5 during the years of the Hawaiian Open. The redesign converted this hole to a long par 4. 28% of shots last year results in a bogey and cumulatively played 0.232 strokes over par making it the most difficult hole on the course. Par is a good score here.

    Hole 9 - Aloha (Par 5, 506 yards)



    The closing hole of the front nine is usually the closing hole for members of Waialae. Despite being the easiest hole on the course, golfers will still need to accurate off the tee and on their second shot or find themselves out-of-bounds down the left side of the fairway or the hazard on the right. Wind from left-to-right often plays a role as well. Over 64% of golfers made birdie last year and 39 eagles were scored as well last year. A nice hole to score low.

    Closing Hole - Kilou Loa (A long hook) (Par 5, 551 yards)



    This closing hole is a dramatic dogleg left that is reachable in two. There is bunker complexes on both side of the dogleg and a large tree on the right. Make it past these hazards and golfers will have a second shot that can be played straight downwind to the green. Over 55% of shots resulted in a birdie while 15 eagles were made last year. This setup should make for a memorable Sunday.

    Check Windfinder.com for up to date wind stats.

    https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/...each_park_oahu

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with about 144 golfers
    • The strength of field - Weaker than average
    • The normal cut of 70 (plus ties). Since 2012, cut range -2 to 0 (avg. -1)
    • Winning scores since 2012 range -27 to -13 (avg. -20)
    • Winners since 2012 (in order: Wagner, Henley, Walker, Walker, Gomez, Thomas and Kizzire). Mostly short hitters


    My Picks

    With these high scoring events making birdies will be even more important this week than usual. Conversely, avoiding bogeys, especially on the longer par 4s will be critical. This course suits elite ball strikers who are good with their approach shots.

    DK - Above 10k

    Gary Woodland (DK $10800, FD $12000, Y $40, Odds 14/1) - There are five golfers above 10k this week with Justin Thomas as the top of the class. However, Woodland has just a much possibility of winning here at a $600 discount. He has been playing extremely well lately including a runner-up last week. He has not finished worse than T13 in four straight starts at the Sony and has averaged 103.7 DK Pts in the last three years.

    DK - 9k

    Paul Casey (DK $9100, FD $11000, Y $40, Odds 33/1) - The 9k doesn’t really inspire me this week. However, if I do need to use somebody in this range, I would use Paul Casey as he fits the course well. He had a great last season, capturing his first win at the Valspar in several years. He finished the Tour Championship with a T11 and had a nice fall swing and TOC with nothing worse than T18 in four starts. He’s a great ball striker who can make birdies, especially on the par 4s in the 400-450 yard range.

    DK - 8k

    Charles Howell III (DK $8900, FD $10400, Y $37, Odds 33/1) - This isn’t a flashy play, but its a high floor play for your cash games. It the time of the year when CHIII does his best work. He is course horse making 7 of 7 cuts since 2012 including a runner up in 2012. He got his first win in like forever during the fall swing at the RSM and did well last week at the TOC with a T14. He has averaged 91.0 DK pts in his last three starts here at the Sony. He should be a core player in your lineups.

    Zach Johnson (DK $8600, FD $10100, Y $37, Odds 40/1) - ZJ is a course horse who has made the cut in his last five starts at the Sony and three top 14s in his last three. He had a good second of the season last year when he made eight straight cuts until he missed the cut at the Dell. He only played two events during the fall swing going 0.500, missing the cut at the OHL but T7 at the RSM. Despite being the weakest on Bermuda, Waialae seems to catch his eye and has reeled in 98.3 DK pts on average in his last three starts at Sony.


    DK - 7k

    Chez Reavie (DK $7600, FD $9400, Y $34, Odds 70/1) - Down in this range, we are looking for value and golfers that can make the cut. Reavie fits that mold. Similar to CHIII, Chez is not flashy but he is a grinder and makes cuts. He has made five straights cuts during the fall swing. He has made four straight cuts at the Sony and has averaged 90.5 DK pts in his last three starts. He is a great ball striker that avoids bogeys which is what you need at Waialae. Another good core play.

    James Hahn (DK $7300, FD $8000, Y $26, Odds 90/1) - Jimmy Hahn is probably one of the streakiest golfers (think Si Woo Kim) who will miss eight straight cuts in a row and then win the Wells Fargo (2016). Amidst his inconsistency, he has found a made cut streak at Waialae. He has made the cut every year since 2013 including a runner-up last year. He has also averaged 93.5 DK pts over the last three years. He is a decent ball striker in this field and has the ability to do well again.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




      Must Login to Comment

    Categories

    Collapse

    Latest Topics

    Collapse

    Upcoming Contests

    Collapse

    There are no results that meet this criteria.

    Latest Articles

    Collapse

    • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2019
      by Jayalger



      JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


      “Somewhere there's a score being kept, so you have an obligation to live life as well as you can, be as engaged as you can.” - Bill Murray


      PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM 2019

      Last Tournament Brief Recap - Waste Management Phoenix Open

      My Picks
      ...
      02-05-2019, 06:39 PM
    • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Waste Management Open 2019
      by Jayalger



      JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


      “The more I practice, the luckier I get.” Gary Player



      PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN 2019

      Last Tournament Brief Recap - Farmers Insurance Open

      My Picks
      Golfer Position DK Pts Value (Pt/$)*1000
      ...
      01-29-2019, 08:59 PM
    • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open 2019
      by Jayalger



      JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


      “Hit the shot you know you can hit, not the one you think you should”. Dr. Bob Rotella


      PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2019

      Last Tournament Brief Recap - Sony Classic

      My Picks
      Golfer Position DK Pts
      ...
      01-22-2019, 06:21 AM
    • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii 2019
      by Jayalger



      JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP

      “IT SHOULD ALL BE WON OR LOST HERE” JACK NICKLAUS


      PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE SONY OPEN 2019

      Hello and welcome DFSChat family! With NFL winding down, I am back from an extended hiatus from PGA just in time for the first full field event - The Sony Open! I have revised my format of the article to include a course preview and picks into one article due to time constraints. I had reduced my exposure to PGA...
      01-08-2019, 04:20 PM
    • PGA DFS Primer 2019
      by Jayalger

      JAYALGER’S

      PRIMER FOR PGA DFS 2019


      Hello and welcome DFSChat family! With NFL winding down, I am back from an extended hiatus from PGA and ready for another fantastic season of PGA DFS. As I try and lay out my personal process, it is important to consider the type of player you are based on your tolerance level and your bankroll. I am primarily a cash game player and play mostly 50/50s, double ups, and low buy-in single entry tournaments. With that being said,...
      01-07-2019, 10:22 AM
    Working...
    X