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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “Hit the shot you know you can hit, not the one you think you should”. Dr. Bob Rotella


    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2019

    Last Tournament Brief Recap - Sony Classic

    My Picks
    Golfer Position DK Pts
    C.Reavie T3 126.0
    C.Howell T8 101.0
    G.Woodland MDF (T80) 34.5
    Z.Johnson MC (T82) 34.5
    J.Hahn MC (T94) 34.0
    P.Casey MC (T94) 31.5

    It wasn’t a great opening week as the picks went only 2 for 6 through the cut. Woodland could of easily not played on Saturday he made as much DK points as ZJ. I guess he at least collects a paycheck and a few FedEx Cup points. CHIII collects another top 10 and continues to be one of the most consistent golfers on tour. Reavie also collected a nice paycheck with his T3. On to the next tournament!

    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - Tournaments - 6, #Picks - 36, Winner - 1, Top 5 - 7 (19.44%), Top 10 - 10 (27.78%), Top 25 - 17 (47.22%), Made Cut - 29 (80.56%).

    The Course - Torrey Pines North and South

    This week move to beautiful La Holla, San Diego, CA at the coastal Torrey Pines Golf Course. It is a public golf course run by the city of San Diego and has been the host of this tournament for decades. Golfers will play each course once and those that make the cut will play the South course through the weekend.

    The hole breakdowns are as follows:

    North Course - Par 72, 7258 yards
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 3
    Par 4 400-450 2
    Par 4 450-500 5
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 4
    Total 18

    South Course - Par 72, 7707 yards
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 1
    Par 4 400-450 3
    Par 4 450-500 5
    Par 4 >500 1
    Par 5 4
    Total 18

    Course Data (2018)

    North Course




    South Course



    South Course by Par



    Course Stats (North Course)
    • Par 72
    • 7,258 yards
    • Architect - William F. Bell (1957), redesign Tom Weiskopf (2016)
    • Greens - average in size, Bentgrass (since 2016) (Stimpmeter 12.0 - 12.5)
    • Difficulty (-0.558 RTP, Ranked 28th of 51 courses played in 2018, Easy)
    • Redesign by Weiskopf “toughened up” the course and added about 200 yards
    • One round played on North Course

    Course Stats (South Course)
    • Par 72
    • 7,698 yards
    • Architect - William f. Bell (1957), redesign Rees Jones (2001)
    • Greens - smaller in size, Poa annua (Stimpmeter 12.0 - 12.5)
    • Difficulty (+0.813 RTP, Ranked 8th most difficult course in 2018, Hard)
    • Three rounds played on South Course
    • Past 8 winners all played South Course on Thursday

    Observed Stat Trends (South Course 2018)
    • The South Course is the behemoth of a course and is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour
    • Last year the course played 0.813 strokes over par
    • The four par 5s are scorable playing a combined 1.06 strokes under par and had an average birdie rate of over 35% between the four holes
    • The four longest par 4s (holes 4, 7, 12, 15) were the most difficult holes on the course last year and had an average bogey rate of over 31%
    • There are three long par 3s over 200 yards and all of them played over par last year
    • There are 80 sand bunkers throughout the course but only one water hazard
    • The biggest defense of the course is the wind as both courses are situated on the cliffs of La Holla right next to the Pacific Ocean
    • Check windfinder.com - https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/...ines_san_diego

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event
    • Golfers will play one round on each course before the cut after the second round
    • The normal cut of 70 (plus ties). Since 2012, cut range -3 to -1 (avg. -2)
    • Winning scores since 2012 range -16 to -6 (avg. -11)
    • Winners since 2012 (in order: Snedeker, Woods, Stallings, Day, Snedeker, Rahm, Day)

    Key Holes
    • Toughest Hole - Hole 12 (par 4, 504 yards)



    The toughest hole on the course last year playing 0.41 RTP and had a bogey or worse rate of over 40%. Despite the generous fairway, this hole is open to the elements and will need nothing less than a well-struck ball off the tee. Par is a good score here.
    • Easiest Hole - Hole 6 (par 5, 560 yards)



    The shortest of the par 5s, this hole features a canyon along the right which can be attacked with a high draw. Otherwise, the safer shot is along the left side of the fairway as long as you avoid the five fairway bunkers. The birdie rate is over 40% and there were even seven eagles made last year on this hole. Golfers should take advantage.
    • Closing Hole - Hole 18 (Par 5, 570 yards)



    This is a fun closing hole which features water in front of the green. This can make or break a golfer. It is scorable with over 35% of shots last year resulting in a birdie. However, if golfer’s find the water in front of the green, they can just as easily score a 10 and lose the tournament.

    My Picks

    The South Course is long so driving distance will be important. Par 5 scoring will be another key area to make birdies and shooting low. Scoring on the par 4s especially the shorter par 4s show a strong correlation among the winners since 2010. If we focus on the last three years since the redesign in 2016, scrambling and bogey avoidance shows up an intermediate correlation among the winners. As usual, T2G correlates with success among winners in years past.

    DK - Above 10k

    Jason Day (DK $10100, FD $11300, Y $40, Odds 16/1) - There are five golfers above 10k this week with Day, the defending two-time champion, as the lowest in this group. Yes, the other four are some of the best in the field, but Day is mispriced, in my opinion, and is the value of the 10k. He’s long off the tee and is a T2G machine. And his putting is superb. And don’t worry about rust. He won last year after not playing any tournaments for nine weeks.

    DK - 9k

    Tony Finau (DK $9900, FD $10700, Y $43, Odds 18/1) - I wrote up Tony last year but he was only $8700 back then. But he is worth 9.9k. He obviously loves this courses with four straight made cuts in four starts and two top 8s. He is an elite ball striker, long off the tee, scores tons of birdies and can handle the par 5s with ease. Current form is superb and is in the midst of a 13 consecutive made cut streak.

    DK - 8k

    Brandt Snedeker (DK $8400, FD $10300, Y $33, Odds 50/1) - Sneds is another course horse who is getting no respect at an average salary. He is a two-time winner, a two-time runner-up, has another two top 9s and has made the cut 9 out of 10 starts. He is on an eleven made cut streak since last year including a win at the Wyndham, a runner-up at The Safeway during the fall swing and a T16 at the Sony two weeks ago. Even though he lacks the length off the tee, he makes it up in other aspects of his game. And I have a funny feeling he will be under-owned.

    Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8000, FD $11700, Y $35, Odds 66/1) - Yes. You read right. Deki is only 8k. Why? Because he showed some rust at the Sony with his T51? Then I’ll take him for his elite upside. He has made two straight cuts in three starts since the revision of the North course in 2016 including a T12 last year. He is on a ten made cut streak since last year including seven top 18s. Deki can tackle the par 5s, scores a lot of DK points, and is elite T2G. He is straight up value.

    DK - 7k

    J.J. Spaun (DK $7300, FD $9200, Y $28, Odds 90/1) - Spaun is a Southern California golfer who went to undergrad at San Diego State University. So, this is his home turf. He has managed a T9 and T23 in two starts at the Farmers. His current form is excellent with 10 straight made cuts including three top 15s. Statistically he is not elite in any of the stats this week, however, he ranks in the top third in most categories. Add on the local narrative and you have the making of another top 10.

    Harris English (DK $7200, FD $7800, Y $20, Odds 125/1) - English is going to be a tough pill to swallow but it is hard to ignore his course history making four straight cuts including a runner-up in 2015 and a T8 last year. He is on a seven made cut streak, though his best finish was a T20. He does scramble well and avoids bogeys which should be enough to make the cut, make value and have the upside of top 10.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




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