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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Waste Management Open 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Waste Management Open 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “The more I practice, the luckier I get.” Gary Player



    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN 2019

    Last Tournament Brief Recap - Farmers Insurance Open

    My Picks
    Golfer Position DK Pts Value (Pt/$)*1000
    H.Matsuyama T3 108.5 13.5
    J.Day T5 101.0 10.0
    T.Finau T13 90.5 9.1
    B.Snedeker T62 62.5 7.4
    H.English MC (T107) 27.0 3.8
    J.J.Spaun MC (T122) 25.5 3.5

    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - Tournaments - 7, #Picks - 42, Winner - 1, Top 5 - 9 (21.43%), Top 10 - 12 (28.57%), Top 25 - 20 (47.62%), Made Cut - 33 (78.57%).

    The Course - TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)

    TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) is a 7261 yard, par-71 course, that was renovated in 2014 by Tom Weiskopf. It includes the infamous par-3, 16th hole which is converted into “The Coliseum” during tournaments. There are 3 par 5s and 4 par 3s.

    The hole breakdowns are as follows:

    Stadium Course - Par 71, 7261 yards
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 1
    Par 4 400-450 5
    Par 4 450-500 5
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 3
    Total 18

    Course Data (2018)



    Course Data by Par



    Course Stats (Stadium Course)
    • Par 71
    • 7,261 yards
    • Architect - Tom Weiskopf (1986), redesign Tom Weiskopf (2014)
    • Greens - 7100 sq. ft. above average in size, TifEagle Bermudagrass (Stimpmeter 12.0)
    • Tees, Fairways, Rough - Bermudagrass overseeded with Rye and Fescue
    • Sand Bunkers - 68
    • Water Hazards - 3
    • Difficulty (-0.676 RTP, Ranked 32nd of 51 courses played in 2018, Easy)


    Observed Stat Trends (2018)
    • Last year the course played 0.676 strokes under par
    • The three par 5s are scorable playing a combined 1.03 strokes under par and had a average birdie rate of 41% between the three holes
    • There are no par 4s above 500 yards, but there are five par 4s between 450-500 yards including the two most difficult holes on the course last year (holes 11 and 14). However, combined they only played 0.512 strokes over par and not overly difficult. The average bogey rate was only about 17%.
    • There is one par 4 under 400 yards which is an easy birdie opportunity for most golfers with a birdie rate of over 45% and 10 eagles (41 eagles were scored last year)
    • There are four par 3s and all played close to par last year.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with around 144 golfers
    • Normal cut of 70 (plus ties). Since the redesign in 2016, cut range +1 to 0
    • Winning scores since 2016 range -18 to -14 (avg. -16)
    • Winners since 2016 (in order: Matsuyama, Matsuyama, Woodland)
    • The Waste Management Open is often the largest attended PGA Tour event each year recording 655,000 spectators in 2017.

    Key Holes
    • Easiest Hole - Hole 13 (par 5, 558 yards)



    Tied as shortest of the par 5s, this hole features water and desert on the right of the fairway and huge trees on the left. The green is gettable in two if they can carry the large coffin bunker that protects the front of the green. The birdie rate was over 43% last year as well as 13 of 41 eagles were made on this hole. Golfers who took advantage last year gained 0.400 strokes on the field on average.
    • Toughest Hole - Hole 11 (Par 4, 472 yards)



    There were two holes that ranked as the toughest holes last year (holes 11 and 14) but number 11 is quite the intimidator. Off the tee, it requires length and accuracy as water lines the entire left side of the fairway. Staying right on the fairway should provide good access to the green. However, miss the green long and golfers will find the bunker behind the green making for a difficult up-and-down. Par is a good score.
    • Signature Hole - Hole 16 - “The Coliseum” (Par 3, 163 yards)



    Hole 16 is where the action is at for both golfers and non-golfers alike. The atmosphere is often loud and fun with beers can flowings and beach balls flying all the while golfers are swinging away. But that is what makes this tournament fun to watch.

    Watch a few memorable hole-in-ones at Hole 16:

    Tiger Woods 1997 (before the Coliseum)

    https://youtu.be/p_PfhNK0AHE

    Francisco Molinari 2015

    https://youtu.be/p_PfhNK0AHE

    Last year this hole played close to par on average recording 77 birdies and 44 bogeys.

    My Picks

    This course is meant for elite ball strikers especially those golfers that have superb approach shots. GIR has shown some correlation with success at this course, especially on the par 4s. Bogey avoidance will be also key at TPC Scottsdale. As usual T2G machines are always in play.

    DK - Above 10k

    Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10700, FD $11800, Y $36, Odds 14/1) - Hideki gets a huge price bump from last week, though he was severely underpriced and moves into a salary more representative of his skill level. He is a course horse who has two wins, a runner-up and a T4 in five starts (he withdrew last year due to injury). Current form is solid with a T3 after shaking off some rust with a T51 at the Sony. He is an elite ball-striker who should have no difficulty at TPC Scottsdale.

    DK - 9k

    Rickie Fowler (DK $9400, FD $11000, Y $42, Odds 22/1) - Rickie always comes to Phoenix with a weight of his shoulders after the Farmers (he is sponsored by Farmers) and plays well. He actually made the cut last week (he had missed the cut the three previous years) which improves his consecutive cut streak to 12 in a row. This includes 5 top 8s and nothing worse than a T28 with the exception of last weeks T66. He is a statistical monster and fits this course well.

    DK - 8k

    Chez Reavie (DK $8700, FD $10300, Y $32, Odds 45/1) - Chez has been playing some decent golf lately as he is in the midst of a eight made cut streak. He’s been averaging 102.3 DK points in his last six events and easily paying of his salary. He course is a little concerning with three missed cuts since 2015 but a runner-up last year. He is a solid T2G and on his approach shots and avoids bogeys. So, I think it's safe to ride the wave.

    Byeong Hun An (DK $8600, FD $9200, Y $34, Odds 66/1) - We haven’t seen An since the fall swing and he has made 12 straight cuts. He has played two Euro Tour events in 2019, however, including a T12 last week at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. In his two starts here in Phoenix, he has a T6 and T23. He is excellent from T2G and makes a lot of GIRs. If he can put field average, then he will be in contention on Sunday.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Emiliano Grillo (DK $7600, FD $8900, Y $33, Odds 66/1) - Down in the 7k, we’re looking for grinders and cut makers. Grillo is that golfer. He is on a 12 consecutive made cut streak with a T7 at the Dell and a runner up at the CIMB during the fall swing. He has made three straight cuts in three starts here at TPC Scottsdale. His stats aren’t flashy but consistent enough to keep the ball in play and on the fairway. He has been averaging 83 DK points in his last 6 events which easily pays off his salary.

    Brian Gay (DK $6700, FD $9300, Y $24, Odds 200/1) - Gay is a gut play but I think he can be a safe play at a bargain price and low ownership. Before missing the cut at the Desert Classic, he was on a 12 consecutive cut streak. He has been averaging 81 DK point over the last six events. He has made 5 straight cuts at WMPO including a T9 last year. He plays par 4s well, avoid bogeys and Bermuda is his preferred putting surface. I think Brian provides a good value who can easily make the cut.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




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