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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “Somewhere there's a score being kept, so you have an obligation to live life as well as you can, be as engaged as you can.” - Bill Murray


    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM 2019

    Last Tournament Brief Recap - Waste Management Phoenix Open

    My Picks
    Golfer Position DK Pts Value (Pt/$)*1000
    R.Fowler 1 131.0 13.9
    C.Reavie T4 102.5 11.8
    H.Matsuyama T15 81.5 7.6
    B.An T20 86 10.0
    E.Grillo T33 75.5 9.9
    B.Gay T55 62 9.3

    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - Tournaments - 8, #Picks - 48, Winner - 2, Top 5 - 11 (22.92%), Top 10 - 14 (29.17%), Top 25 - 24 (50.00%), Made Cut - 39 (81.25%).

    The Courses - Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass GC and Monterey GC

    Just when you thought we got back to playing golf on a single course, we go back to California for the very scenic Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The AT&T is played on a three-course rotation (Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass GC and Monterey GC (Shore Course) for the first three days. The final day is played on Pebble Beach GL. We will focus the bulk of the review on Pebble Beach where golfers will get two rounds of play.

    The hole breakdowns are as follows:

    Pebble Beach GL (Par 72, 6816 yards)
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 6
    Par 4 400-450 3
    Par 4 450-500 1
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 4
    Total 18
    Spyglass Hill GC (Par 72, 6953 yards)
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 4
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 2
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 4
    Total 18
    Monterey Peninsula GC - Shore Course (Par 71, 6958 yards)
    Par 3 5
    Par 4 <400 3
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 2
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 4
    Total 18
    Course Data - PB (2018)



    Course Data by Par - PB (2018)



    Course Data - SG (2018)



    Course Data - MP (2018)




    Course Stats - PB
    • Par 72
    • 6,816 yards
    • Architect - Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919)
    • Greens - 3500 sq. ft. (tiny greens), Poa annua (Stimpmeter 10.5)
    • Tees, Fairways - Poa annua/ryegrass
    • Rough - Ryegrass
    • Sand Bunkers - 118
    • Water Hazards - 1
    • Difficulty (+ 0.021 RTP, Ranked 16th of 51 courses played in 2018, average)

    Course Stats - SG
    • Par 72
    • 6,953 yards
    • Architect - Robert Trent Jones
    • Greens - 5000 sq.ft. (Small), Poa annua
    • Difficulty (-0.221 RTP, Ranked 22nd of 51 courses played in 2018, average)
    • #11 Golf Digest America’s 100 Greatest Public Courses

    Course Stats - MP
    • Par 71
    • 6,958 yards
    • Architect - Robert Baldock (1960), redesign Mike Strantz (2003)
    • Greens - 6,000 sq.ft (smaller than average), Poa annua
    • Difficulty (-0.942 RTP, Ranked 38th of 51 courses played in 2018, easy)
    • Typically plays as the most difficult of the three but played easy RTP last year


    Observed Stat Trends - PB (2018)
    • Last year the course played 0.021 strokes under par
    • The two shorter par 5s (holes 2 and 6) are on the front nine and are scorable playing a combined 1.1 strokes under par and had a average birdie rate of 50% between the two holes.
    • There are no par 4s above 500 yards, but there are three par 4s between 400-450 yards and one above 450 yards. All four holes played over par last year with holes 8 and 9 being the most difficult holes on the course. They combined for 0.649 strokes over par with an average bogey rate of over 21%.
    • There are six par 4 under 400 yards that either played under par or slightly over par last year. The shortest par 4 is only 331 yards and has birdie rate of almost 33%
    • There are four par 3s with the two longer par 4s (holes 5 and 12) being the 4th and 2nd most difficult holes, respectively, last year.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with each pro teamed with an amateur
    • Cut at 60 (plus ties) after 54 holes. Each golfer will get one round on each of the courses. Final round at PB
    • Winning scores since 2014 range -22 to -11 (avg. -17)
    • Winners since 2014 (in order: Walker, Snedeker, V. Taylor, Spieth, TPJ)


    Key Holes - PB
    • Easiest Hole - Hole 2 (par 5, 502 yards)

    This straight hole has a green that is reachable in two if golfers are able to find the fairway. Otherwise, a more conservative path is to lay up just short of the deep bunker that traverses the fairway. This will set up for an easy 75 yard approach shot to the green. This hole played 0.628 strokes under par with over 50% of shots resulting in a birdie. There were also 15 of 27 eagles scored here last year.
    • Toughest Hole - Hole 8 (Par 4, 418 yards)



    This beautiful hole is set along a cliff with the ocean along the length of the fairway. Golfers will need to take into account the wind to find the landing area at 240 yards. This will leave a middle iron shot onto a sloped green from back to front. This hole played 0.242 strokes over par with a bogey rate of about 25%.

    Closing Hole - Hole 18 (Par 5, 543 yards)



    This is a gorgeous hole with the ocean along the entire left side of the fairway. Golfers will want to have their second shot on the left side of the fairway to avoid the overhanging tree on the right. The green is well protected by bunkers on both sides. Golfers need to be cautious as balls have a tendency to roll into the ocean. This hole played near average RTP with a birdie rate of 28%. There were even three eagles here. A great finishing hole.


    My Picks

    With a three course rotation, making picks is a bit more difficult. So, proceed with caution this week. However, I focused on PB as golfers will get 2 rounds there if they make the cut. Otherwise I focus on the basics here, T2G, SG:APP, making birdies, and scoring on the par 4s and par 5s. I am looking for golfers who perform well on these fast, poa greens. That should led to some success.

    DK - Above 10k

    Jason Day (DK $10900, FD $12400, Y $48, Odds 10/1) - As with most weeks, we are splitting hairs up at the top. I’ll ride the form, course and skill of Day. He’s seven straight made cuts with nothing worse than T24 and a T5 at the Farmers two weeks ago. He has four straight made cuts at Pebble Beach with nothing worse than a T11 and has averaged 98.5 DK points since 2016. He has a great short game, handles the par 5s and par 4s with ease and you get a $500 discount on DJ (who is coming from halfway around the world after his win in Saudi Arabia, if you like narratives).

    DK - 9k

    Chez Reavie (DK $9000, FD $10500, Y $34, Odds 25/1) - Reavie gets only a small price bump from last week but continues to produce excellent results for his salary. He is on a nine made cut streak and averaging 107.3 DK points in the last 6 weeks. He has only averaged 77.5 DK points in his last three starts at Pebble but last year he did finish runner-up which gave him 106.5 DK points. He is solid T2G and on approach, makes bogeys. Continue to ride the hot hand.

    DK - 8k

    Brandt Snedeker (DK $8200, FD $10900, Y $35, Odds, 50/1 - Snedeker continues a 13 made cut streak despite his struggles from T2G but makes it up with superb short game. This likely keeps his salary relatively lower than his average. He has averaged 70.5 DK points in his last six weeks but has averaged 83.0 DK points since 2016 including a 99.5 DK points in 2017 when he finished T4. He is a former winner here in 2015 so he knows how to win. At this salary, I think he can provide enough value.

    Russell Knox (DK $8100, FD $9200, Y $33, Odds 50/1) - Knox has been in good form since the start of the calendar year making four straight cuts including a T10 performance last week. Course isn’t terrible with 2 made cuts in 3 starts including a T15 last year. He has been averaging 81.6 DK points in the last six weeks and paying off his salary.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Nick Watney (DK $7500, FD $8800, Y $26, Odds 125/1) - Watney has found some good form with seven straight made cuts with a best T19 at the CIMB during the fall swing. He has been performing well enough to payoff his salary 74.3 DK points over the last six weeks. He has made the cut at Pebble the last three starts including a runner up in 2015. He doesn’t necessarily pop out on any of the stat categories this week but I think he is steady enough to payoff his salary again this week.

    Kevin Streelman (DK $7300, FD $8300, Y $23, Odds 150/1) - Streelman has been struggling as of late but has been able to make two of his last three cuts. However, his course history has been excellent making three straight cuts in three starts at Pebble since 2016 with nothing worse than a T17 and has averaged 89.5 DK points in the same time frame. He is solid from T2G and with his approach shots. So I think it's okay to take a shot on course history with Streelman for your lineups.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




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