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JAYALGER’S

PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL 2017

Last Week Results

Last week we saw Jordan Spieth go wire-to-wire to win the Travelers Championship in a dominating fashion with a fantastic finish in a playoff with Daniel Berger. Spieth got a little lucky leading into the playoff but was even more lucky as he holed out out of the greenside bunker to birdie the playoff hole to finish at -12 and make it his 10th PGA win. He is the 2nd youngest (behind Tiger Woods, of course) to win 10 PGA tournaments.

Golfer Position DK Pts Avg % Own DK
C.Hoffman T3 106.50 33.38
P.Casey T5 94.00 31.72
W. Simpson T8 77.00 34.53
T.Finau T17 80.00 17.50
M.Leishman T17 75.00 19.68
K.Stanley T57 58.50 15.99

As for my picks, I went 6 of 6 through my picks with some decent high finishes. Hoffman was my best pick. He shot under par the entire tournament, racked up 17 birdies and 1 eagle and ranked #1 in putting for the tournament. But he could not keep up with Spieth and finished at -10 good for T3. Casey was also able to shoot under par all four rounds but an untimely double bogey on 10 on Sunday fouled his chances for contention and finished at -9 good for T5. Simpson was the chalk under 7k and collected 12 birdies and 1 eagle which was good enough for finishing at -8 good for T8. Finau and Leishman finished well enough to finish at -6 good for T17. Stanley struggled on Saturday after making the cut, but improved on Sunday and finished under par for a total -1 good for T57. Overall, I did well across all sites winning almost all of my cash games with the help of Spieth, Sneds (thanks to John and Nick of the Dodging Tilt podcast) and Steele. So farewell to TPC River Highlands to another TPC course for the Quicken Loans National.

The Course

This week we move to Potomac, MD at TPC Potomac (formerly known as TPC Avenel) for the Quicken Loans National. This course has hosted several PGA tournaments in the past including the Booze Allen Classic and the Kemper Open but went through a complete overhaul in 2008 and reopened in 2009. Since then it has hosted a few events including the Senior Players Championship in 2010 and two Web.com events (The Neediest Kids Championship in 2012 won by David Lingmerth and the Mid-Atlantic Championship in 2013 won by Michael Putnam). Otherwise, this will be essentially a new course without any significant history.

The hole breakdown is as follows:

Par 3 4
Par 4 <400 3
Par 4 400-450 3
Par 4 450-500 6
Par 4 >500 0
Par 5 2
Total 18

The course is a par 70, 7139 yard course with four par 3s and two par 5s. The fairways are fairly narrow averaging about 30-35 yards in width and tree lined so some accuracy will be needed off the tee. The first cut of rough should not be a problem but reports of the second cut being much higher suggests that the second cut will be more penial. There are also a good number fairway bunkers as well as water hazards on several holes. Half of the par 4s range in the 450-500 range and 2 holes a shy a few yards under 450. This will probably put most approach shots around 150-175 yards. Greens are of bentgrass but are somewhat narrow and long from front to back (as I watched some flyovers) which, again, suggests that golfer’s will need a good approach shot or otherwise will need to scramble well.

My Picks

This is an invitational event so there are only 120 golfers in the field. Yet, the cut will be top 70 and ties. Therefore, I higher likely of getting 6 of 6 through the cut. We don’t really have a whole lot of data but the Web.com events can give a hint of what might be useful in addition to understanding the layout of the course. Lingmerth won in 2012 at -8 while Putnam won in 2013 at -7. The four day average of the 2013 event played over par at 72.631 while the 2012 event was 72.111. With that being said, I’ll focusing most of my stat research on those golfers with good P4 scoring, P4 BB%, P4 Eff 450-500, GIR% and SGAPP. T2G and BB%, as usual, is important every week.

Rickie Fowler (DK $12000, FD $10200, FDR $19100) - If I have to pick one of the top tier golfers over 10k on DK, I would go with Rickie. He’s as solid as it gets in this weak field and more consistent than Thomas or Reed. He’s in great form in his last five tournaments making 4 of 5 cuts (5, MC, 2, 60, 11). His stats are superb for this course (11th T2G, 32nd GIR%, 8th P4 450-500, 4th App 150-175 and 12th SGAPP). Easy pick for your cash games and can easily see him win against this field.

Marc Leishman - (DK $9800, FD$8500, FDR $16400) - I’m going stick with what works in Marc Leishman . He continues to be a solid option every week. He is has been a consistent all around golfer this year and is in great form making 7 of 8 cuts in the last 12 weeks (T17, T27, T15, T34, T13, MC, T44, T43). He has great all-around stats to complement the course (21st T2G, 40th GIR%, 15th P4 400-450, and 34th SGAPP). Based on his stats, he offers you consistency for your cash lineups and has shown that he has upside to win with his win this year at Arnold Palmer.

Tony Finau (DK$9100, FD $8700, FDR $16100) - I’m going to sound like a broken record, but I like Tony again this week as well. He did well last week with a T17 at the Travelers keeping him in great form making 6 of 7 cuts in the last 12 weeks (T17, T40, T29, T13, MC, T3, T34). He’s got enough stats to do well here (5th T2G, 3rd GIR%, 23rd P4 BB%, 8th P4 400-450 and 28th SGAPP). I like him sometime this year and this could easily be the one.

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Danny Lee (DK $8200, FD $7800, FDR $15700) - This is the first I’ve recommended Danny Lee and he has been showing some really good form in his last 5 tournaments including three top 6s (3, 47, 49, 6, 5). His stats are sufficient (97th T2G, (97th GIR%, 26th P4 BB%, 23rd App 150-175 and 63rd SGAPP). Should see less ownership since narrative favorites Lingmerth (prior winner), Schauffele (recent form) and Hearn (does well on Northern courses) are in the same range. Lee will be a nice sneaky pivot play for GPPs but probably safe for cash as well.

Kevin Na (DK $7400, FD $6800, FDR $14000) - So not to be redundant with repeat pick with Kyle Stanley (who is still a solid pick), I’ll pivot a little lower to Kevin Na who I think is on an upswing in the last to tournaments despite a really poor start to the season. He has made 3 of his last 5 cuts (57, 32, WD, MC, 39). His current stats are much more impressive (54th T2G, 20th P4 450-500, 15th P4 BB%, 4th App 150-175 and 35th SGAPP). I think he is onto something good and so you’ll want to jump onto the train before it falls off the rails. A GPP pick all the way.

Hitting an Albatross (DK salary < 7k and < 5% ownership). Nick Taylor (DK $6700, FD $5400, FDR $12700) - The Webb Simpson pick from last week was more popular than I expected but he easily made value and then some. This week I find Nick Taylor to be my favorite under 7k. He did miss the cut last week but before that, he was on a tear of made cuts since the Shell Houston (MC, 49, 61. 9, 8, 22, 22, 44). Stats are formidable (51st T2G, 86th GIR%, 61st P4 450-500 and 80th SGAPP). Based on his current form, he should be a safe play to make the cut and complete your lineups.

Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!