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Preview and Picks for the Greenbrier Classic 2017

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  • Preview and Picks for the Greenbrier Classic 2017

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    JAYALGER’S

    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE GREENBRIER CLASSIC 2017

    Last Week Results

    Last week’s tournament was a grueling battle of golfer against a difficult “new” course. Many players squeezed through the cut of +4 but continued to struggle through the weekend. However, Kyle Stanley and several clutch putts on Sunday on 17 and on the first playoff hole against Charles Howell III (who had not played any golf in over two months due to injury but rallied on Sunday with a 66) allowed him to win his 2nd PGA tour event. During his post interview, he was very emotional and it was a well deserved win.

    Golfer Position DK Pts Avg % Own DK
    M.Leishman T5 93.00 17.50
    R.Fowler T3 88.50 25.54
    N.Taylor T29 67.50 4.69
    D.Lee T22 64.00 24.74
    K.Na T22 63.50 11.73
    T.Finau T29 62.00 26.63

    I had another solid week as I went 6 of 6 through my picks with some decent high finishes. Fowler stayed the course and shot an amazing 65 to finish at -5 good for T3. Leishman had another solid week with bookend 66s for the tournament and finished at -4 good for T5. Na and Lee had a good Sunday picking up 3.45 and 1.45 strokes gained, respectively, on Sunday to finish at -1 good for T22. Finau had a bad round on Friday but made the cut and salvaged the weekend and played under par throughout the weekend allowing him to finish at +1, good for T29. Taylor was my albatross pick (finally!) who played well initially but faded during the weekend but finished a respectable +1, good for T29. Overall, I had another positive ROI week on DK and FD but lost on FDR through all my cash games and few small cashes in the quarter arcade with the help of Stanley, Lingmerth, An and Haas. Positive ROI every week is the goal and hope to continue the streak this week at the Greenbrier Classic.

    The Course

    This week we are in White Sulphur Springs, WV at Greenbrier’s The Old White TPC course. Last year, the tournament was cancelled due to the entire course was flooded. It has since be restored without any change to the original layout except fresh, new bentgrass greens and fairways, fescue around bunkers removed and some trees trimmed to open up some views. It is a par-70, 7286 yard course with four par 3s and par 5s. There are 72 bunkers scattered about the course and 10 water hazards. The hole breakdown is as follows:

    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 2
    Par 4 400-450 6
    Par 4 450-500 4
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 2
    Total 18

    Off the tee, golfer’s will have wide open fairways which are some of the easiest to hit on tour. Approach shots will be in the range of 125-175 yards onto large greens (7000 sq.ft. on average) with a GIR of about 69% (easier than average). In 2015, the course did play under par (69.71). The two par 5s, hole 12 and hole 17, are on the back nine and played under par in 2015 recording a birdie rate of 35.99% and 27.59%, respectively. Six of the par 4s are 400-450 yard range and are some of the easier holes on the course except hole 16 (444 yards and played as the second most difficult hole overall). I suspect that golfers will need to take advantage of the par 5s and the shorter par 4s to move up the leaderboard.

    One narrative worth mentioning. Lefty and Bubba both have summer homes on this course.

    My Picks

    This is a standard stroke play event with 156 golfers in the field headlined by Reed, Kisner and Mickleson who are the only golfers in the top 25 OWGR (21,24 and 25 respectively). Winners here since 2010 have ranged from -22 to -10, and therefore, there will be a lot of birdies to be had making P4 BB% and P4 Eff 400-450 important. Similar to last week, approach shots will be important especially from 125-150 yards making SGAPP and App 125-150. Sorting through course trends and other data, SGP seemed to pop up amongst the top 3, and so I’ll give an extra nod to SGP and better putters. T2G and BB%, as usual, is important every week.

    Patrick Reed (DK $11200, FD $10100, FDR $17800) - At the top, I’m going with “Captain America” himself, Patrick Reed. He is in great recent form making 4 of 4 cuts in the last 6 weeks (T17, T5, T13, T57). His stats are fine for the course (73rd T2G, 48th P4 BB%, 37th P4 400-450 and 27th SGP). He has played course three times in the past making 2 of 3 cuts (T29, T26, MC). Should make for a fine play based on his current form.

    Kevin Kisner (DK $10700, FD $9500, FDR $17100) - Just below Reed is Kisner, who is a bit overpriced to me but his can be worth it. Except for the Zurich nine weeks ago, Kisner has been hot including a win at the Dean & DeLuca and two top 6s (58, 6, 1, 56, MC, 2, 11, 43) in the last 12 weeks. He’s 10th T2G, 1st P4 400-450, 48th P4 BB%, 6th SGAPP and 25th SGP. His only blemish is making only 1 of 4 cuts here at the Greenbrier but he was 2nd in 2015. He will be a solid play this week.

    Danny Lee (DK $9500, FD $8400, FDR $16400) - I’m going to the well again with Danny Lee, the defending champion in 2015 and a 16th in 2014. He had a T22 last and he has been showing some really good form in his last 6 tournaments including three top 6s (22, 3, 47, 49, 6, 5). His stats are sufficient (90th T2G, 30th P4 BB%, 32nd P4 400-450, 51st SGAPP and 27th SGP). His only downside is his price increase and will probably be chalky. Play the chalk in cash.

    Click Here to Enter DFSchat's FREE Greenbrier Classic Contest

    Graham DeLaet - (DK $8400, FD$6700, FDR $14800) - Next will be Graham DeLaet. Although missing the cut last week, I think this Greenbrier will be better for him. He’s made 5 of 8 cuts in the last 11 weeks including two top 10s (MC, 26, 10, 57, MC, MC, 22, 6). Stats are good (65th T2G, 58th P4 400-450, 34th P4 BB%, 29th SGAPP and 28th SGP). I think he could be a sneaky play because of his MC last week but coming into form and playable in all formats.

    Stewart Cink (DK$6900, FD $7200, FDR $14100) - Yes, Cink is sub 7k and not my albatross pick. He will be the chalk below 7k and for good reason. He’s 4 of 4 made cut in the last 5 weeks including two top 10s (46, 10, 25, 10). He is 32nd T2G, 38th P4 400-450, 4th P4 BB%, 35th App 125-150, 11th SGAPP and 20th SGP. The only thing is he has no history here. No worries. Just stick him in all your lineups. He’s too cheap.

    Hitting an Albatross (DK salary < 7k and < 5% ownership). Ricky Barnes (DK $6700, FD $5900, FDR $13100) - To pivot off of chalky Cink, Ricky Barnes pops up for me. He is in decent form for his salary making 9 of 11 cuts in the last 12 weeks including 4 top 22s (17, 35, MC, 22, 18, 59, 65,63, 22, 67, MC). Hasn’t had great success at Greenbrier but has made 4 of 6 cuts (67, MC, MC, 38, 39, 78). His stats are not stellar but at this price, I’ll bank on his form to make the cut and so should you.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!
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