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Week 5 Cash Game Review

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  • Week 5 Cash Game Review

    Hello, I'm new here but like most of you I love talking about sports, DFS, etc. I've been playing DFS for several years and really enjoy it as a hobby. I'm definitely not a pro but would like to think I'm an above average recreational player in NFL and NBA and absolute total fish in PGA and MLB. Anyways, I'd like to kind of put my weekly thoughts on paper as I think it's a good way to help refine my process and overall lineup decision making.
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    Week 5 had pretty tight pricing on draftkings and once it was clear that Marquise Goodwin was going to play it made you make some really uncomfortable decisions.

    QB - I ended up rolling with Hoyer as he had a great matchup against a bad pass D & was playing in a dome. At $4700 he was worth the risk because if he got 15 points you were happy enough. I also considered McCown at 4500 against the Browns but thought Hoyer had better offensive weapons at was more likely to crush value. Obviously, I would've like to had played Rodgers or Dak but the pricing just didn't allow for it in my opinion this week.

    RB - Le'Veon Bell was the chalk this week but at 9500 he was just so expensive and the total was only 42 in that game so I thought it was okay to go with Zeke and Gurley instead. Gurley obviously didn't work out as his market share of the carries and targets fell off a cliff against a tough Seattle D. The game obviously may have turned out differently if he hadn't fumbled thru the end zone on the first drive of the game. I went with 3 RBs in cash this week with Melvin Gordon as the 3rd back. He was coming off some tough weeks but finally appeared to be fully healthy and was removed from the injury report. For $6000 I thought he had a really safe floor as he would be involved on all three downs and get goal line work. I also considered Hyde for cash but didn't want the negative correlation with Hoyer and thought about going super cheap with Wayne Gallman but didn't quite think the risk was worth it.

    WR - TY Hilton was a lock for me playing at home against a pass funnel secondary for the 49ers. Dez Bryant was too cheap at home in a prime spot and it gave me exposure to that high total game that I thought I needed and didn't mind the negative correlation with Zeke because I thought they'd move the ball on Green Bay and obviously didn't see the 2 TD game from Beasley coming. Playing Torrey Smith in cash is not something that I was very comfortable with but this week made you make uncomfortable plays. With Alshon being locked up with Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals being pretty stout against tight ends and the run game I thought Smith get a few extra opportunities this week and honestly I got a little lucky that he hit a big play. Other WR's that I wanted but just couldn't fit in: Jordy Nelson (too expensive), Cobb, Devante Parker, and Pierre Garcon. I had plenty of these guys in GPPs and it kept me from having a huge week in that regard. They were all in great spots and it just didn't quite work out. Nelson dropped a td and Parker got injured early so that was a little unlucky.

    TE - I was really only on 4 guys this week. ASJ, Bennett, Henry, and Kittle. Ended up on ASJ in cash because I didn't quite have the salary to get to Bennett. The Browns had been getting crushed by tight ends this year and ASJ was playing a bunch of snaps on a talent deprived offense. I thought he had a safer floor than Henry even though the matchup against the Giants is as good as it gets for tight ends. I like Kittle, he's a great athlete but thought his floor was a legit zero so I decided to go with ASJ in cash. Tight end was really gross this week but definitely think my process was good and obviously ran good too with him getting in the end zone.

    D - I generally pay in the mid tier or lower at defense. With the tight pricing this week I was really on four defenses; Philly against a poor O-line in AZ, Oakland at home against Flacco, Carolina on the road at Detroit, and the Chargers on the road against the Giants who already had a bad O-line and were now missing their starting Center. Ended up on Oakland as I didn't have the money to get to Philly and they were playing at home, which is probably something I overrate. The Raiders were missing two starting cb's and their starting qb which I think indirectly effects the Defense as more likely to be put in negative field position. I really liked the Chargers D as I thought they'd under performed so far and had a chance to really get after the immobile Eli Manning with a make shift line. Going forward I'm going to weight poor o line a little higher than home/road for defense. Playing Chargers D would've also game me positive correlation with Melvin Gordon so that would've been the right play.

    Overall I had a great week and thought my process was pretty solid.

    Feel free to leave any comments/suggestions on how to refine the cash game lineup making process below.