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Johns Jewels Week 6 - Its Elementary my Dear Watson

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  • Johns Jewels Week 6 - Its Elementary my Dear Watson




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    Dodging Tilt DFS Ep. 50 with @lindseyyok: https://soundcloud.com/user-48043930...0-w-lindsey-ok




    REMINDER: For everyone new to DFSchat and the Jewels, welcome. Each week I post a writeup similar to the one you’re about to read but thats not all. We also run free contests weekly giving away money to our members at no cost. Just check out this thread for how to get involved in our free weekly contests courtesy of our sponsor Spoker. Another important thing to keep in mind is this article is posted on Tuesday so while I trust a lot of the players I am covering here be sure to check out the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast available on Thursday evenings to get the top plays and players I will most likely be rolling out in my cash game lineups if you’re a game cash kinda person. As usual im available on twitter up until Sunday mornings @johnhuishsports.



    Week 5 Review:


    Prime Picks



    QB


    Dak Prescott 30.74 FDP


    Aaron Rodgers 24.04 FDP


    RB

    Leonard Fournette 30.9 FDP


    Melvin Gordon 31.6 FDP


    WR


    Dez Bryant 13.7 FDP


    TE


    Zach Ertz 15.1 FDP


    D/ST


    Chiefs 10 FDP


    Ravens 12 FDP




    Week 5 breakdown: The Johns Jewels cover boy curse was finally broken by Dak! Unfortunately there was a lot of injuries this week the most notable DFS one was Devante Parker getting injured after 1 catch. Personally was able to cash again on both sites just paired Dak & Dez and went with cheap Melvin Gordon against the Giants awful run D. I had to hop off the Titans receivers which forced me to pivot to Will Fuller instead of Rishard Matthews on FD which ended up being the reason I cashed there. I know these are kind of short but come NBA season I will be doing more in depth cash game lineup breakdowns for anyone else trying to improve their process maybe mine can help give some insight, lets go for 6 in a row.



    Quarterbacks


    Alright lets just get this out of the way now, Deshaun Watson ($7900) is going to be the chalk play of the week there’s no doubt about that. Hes at home taking on the Browns who are terrible… before we even begin to talk about how terrible they are Watson himself has been evolving in his 4 weeks as a starting QB scoring 18, 22, 35 and most recently 36 FDP. Hes averaging almost 3 passing TD’s per game and that doesnt count his rushing TD ability. In the last month the Browns are allowing opposing QB’s to complete passes over 75% of the time and have allowed 9 TDs through the air in that 4 game span. I honestly cant see any reason to fade Watson in cash at this point especially on FD but theres a few other QB’s I think are in really good spots so there are definitely some other options if you are playing tournaments.





    One of those QB’s is Drew Brees ($8600) who is taking on the Lions who are coming off a woeful defensive performance against the rejuvenated Cam Newton. Now they have the face Drew Brees at home in the game with the highest vegas implied total on the weekend. So far through Brees first 4 games this season hes averaging 283 yards in the air with a pair of touchdowns on average. Detroit has been fairly stingy this year in regards to passing TD’s but have allowed opposing QB’s to go for an average of just over 275 yards. Whenever there is a game in New Orleans with a high total and 2 high powered offenses and not great defenses theres always the potential for a 48-44 final and I think this could happen here this weekend so hopefully Stafford and Brees really get into a shootout this Sunday.



    Famous Jameis ($7800) is taking on the Cardinals in Arizona on Sunday. The Cards D is currently ranked 31st in the league giving up an average of 19.6 FDP to opposing QB’s. So far this season Winston is averaging 299.8 yards per game with a couple TDs as well. In his last 3 outings hes surpassed 18 FDP each time. As of now this game has one of the lower totals on the slate at 45 but theres about 7 games sitting between 45 and 47 so should still be high scoring relative to other games and the spread in this game is only 1.5 so unlike other games that are expected to be blowouts theres a good chance you can expect both QB’s in this game to be throwing late into the game. I think Winston is an intriguing pivot off of Watson for tournaments and you will get him at extremely low ownership as well with everyone and their mom playing Watson this weekend.



    The rest of week 6’s top QB’s will be mentioned on Ep. 51 the Dodging Tilt Podcast

    Running backs


    Leonard Fournette ($8600) is coming off a 181 yard performance against the Steelers and now gets to face the Rams who have the 26th ranked D against the run coming into this game. Fournettes volume through the first 5 weeks have been absolutely insane because its not like letting Blake Bortles throw the ball is really an option partially because he has nobody to throw it to and if its not garbage time then well, forget it. So the bulk of the offensive wordload has fallen on the shoulders of Fournette. So far hes averaged 93 yards per game on the ground this season scoring at least 1 TD in each of his first 5 NFL games. In the last month the Rams are allowing a whopping 151 yards per game on the ground to opposing backs which is absolutely massive. Fournette is likely going to be chalk coming off such a massive game and stepping right into another dynamite matchup but at sub 9K hes still worth it.



    Devonta Freeman ($8500) is another guy in a nice spot coming off a bye week taking on the Dolphins this week as a big favourite. In Freemans last 3 outings he has rushed at least 18 times. 18. Along with a couple catches as well which is always a bonus. The Dolphins D has been stingy on paper only giving up an average of 70 YPG on the ground but the only legitimate RB1 they faced in Melvin Gordon was able to drop 17.3 FDP on them so dont get caught up in their ranking or how many yards they have allowed. Freeman has scored at least a TD in each of his first 4 games this season and should see another heavy workload again this weekend especially if the Falcons are in the lead Matty Ice wont be throwing much in the 4th Q and the majority of touches will go to Freeman, again another nice $100 cheaper pivot off a guy who will likely be pretty chalky.



    Alvin Kamara ($5800) is my favourite value play this weekend in the Saints game against the Lions in NO. Despite not getting very many carries Kamaras value comes from his pass catching ability racking up at least 5 targets in his last 4 games. He alos have 10 targets against the Dolphins and caught every single one for a total of 71 yards and a TD. He doesnt get very many touches along the ground which is fine because Detroit has a solid run game but its the ability to pair him with Brees and get that same QB/WR stack while only paying $5800 and it being for a running back. Not sure how many people will be on Kamara this weekend but I think hes a great play at his price especially with how well hes been incorporated into this offense.



    The rest of week 6’s top RB’s will be mentioned on Ep. 51 the Dodging Tilt Podcast



    Wide Receivers


    Uber chalk play #2 this week is going to be DeAndre Hopkins ($8000) who I am sure a lot of people will be pairing with Deshaun Watson coming off his 3 TD performance. Last week Hopkins caught 4 passes for 3 TD’s on 12 targets. The lowest amount of targets Hopkins has received this season has been 8 and he has gotten at least 10 or more in each of his other 4 games. The volume will definitely be there for Hopkins as it always is and I would be very surprised if he puts up a dud against the Browns. Again, hes almost essentially a must play for cash but fading in tournaments could be what helps you take one down.




    Golden Tate ($7600) is another part of this potential high scoring Saints/Lions game that I would like a part of. Despite not being off to the start we thought he would be off to and the Saints D actually looking competent the last few weeks I still think this is a good spot for Tate. His volume has been a little wonky this season with 2 games only getting 5 and 4 targets but another 2 surpassing 10. I think this is a game where he will be surpassing the 10 mark again mainly due to the fact that the last 3 times Tate has taken on the Saints he has scored a total of 4 TD’s with at least 1 in each of those games. Stafford will likely be looking for Tate quite a bit on Sunday and at a reasonable price I would be strongly considering Tate for cash games.



    Adam Theilen ($6500) is at home on Sunday taking on the Packers who are currently ranked 29th in the league against the pass. They are giving up over 175 yards to opposing wide-outs with an average of 1.5 TD’s per game. Theilen has been targeted at least 8 times in the last 3 weeks. Hes likely going to be facing Demarious Randall on most of the snaps as well and he is #notgood. Its weird Case Keenum actually looked like an NFL QB on Monday so I would really like Theilen is Keenum is in rather than Sam Bradfords 80 year old frail body. Another guy who is likely going to be chalk this week in a good matchup at a nice price tag.


    The rest of week 6’s top WR’s will be mentioned on Ep. 51 the Dodging Tilt Podcast


    Tight Ends


    Cameron Brate ($5900) makes a great pair with Famous Jameis this weekend against the Cardinals. Going into last week the Cardinals were ranked 1st in the league against TE’s. After facing a legitimate TE they have dropped to 9th. As we know with Brate his office is in the Red Zone with 6 RZ targets over the past 3 games with 3 of those going for TD’s. His targets are finally going up too with 4, 6, then 9 targets last week hopefully this trend continues against the Cardinals with Mike Evans likely to be tied up with Pat Pete this should open up another game full of opportunities for Brate.


    Hunter Henry ($5400) seems to be finally be getting a bit more playing time than 100 year old Antonio Gates racking up 3 catches for 42 yards and a TD last week on 8 targets. Oakland isnt great against TE’s and I think the trend of Henry getting more targets/snaps than Gates will continue as Gates surely has to be in his final year in the NFL so they are going to need to get Henry in there eventually. At $5400 I think hes a great value play and will likely get some love from Rivers on Sunday.



    Eli Manning is literally running out of people to throw the ball too… Beckham and Marshall are both done for the season and Sterling Shepard is expected to be out on Sunday night so that leaves Eli with essentially Roger Lewis and Evan Engram ($5300) I think Engram was like 20% owned last week and literally did not register a stat. A lot of people are worried about playing guys against Denvers D but they are currently ranked 27th against TE’s giving up a big game to Charles Clay in week 3 and a massive game to Jason Witten back in week 2. A LOT of people will be off Engram because week 6 is the official point chasing week in DFS apperantly and I wouldnt necessarily trust it for cash but you could probably grab him at under 5% ownership as a potential late night hammer.



    The rest of week 6’s top TE’s will be mentioned on Ep. 51 the Dodging Tilt Podcast





    D/ST


    Jacksonville Jaguars ($4900)

    Baltimore Ravens ($4900)

    KC Chiefs ($4800)




    Obviously the Texans D is in play against the Browns, the Broncos are in play against the Giants and the Falcons are in play against the Dolphins buuut they are all kinda expensive so these options could save you that couple hundred extra that could be crucial when it comes to fitting certain guys into your lineups. My favourite of the bunch is probably the Ravens against Trubisky who kinda looked like Jay Cutler 2.0 on Monday and the Ravens secondary has been very solid so far this season so if I had to pick from the three I would go with Baltimore.




    Kickers


    Matt Prater ($5000)

    Dustin Hopkins ($4700)

    Nick Novak ($4500)

    Phil Dawson ($4500)










    Lets jump into the lineups:

    As I mentioned on twitter lineup #1 from last week was a lot of the core guys I used to build my cash game lineups in on both sites so if you used some of the guys from there you most likely cashed.






    Lineup #1 Delicious Chalk


    This lineup has definitely more of a cash base so if you want to be a special snowflake you could pivot Fournette to Freeman and then drop $800 worth of TE/D/K to fit Aaron Jones, Doug Martin, or Lamar Miller in for Alvin Kamara. I like all 3 of those guys at $6800.



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    Lineup #2 Krispy


    With Rob Kelly doubtful to play on Sunday I would keep Krispy Kareem, Famous Jameis and Chris Thompson all together but theres really a lot of room to mess around with receivers. Landrys value is obviously dependent on whether or not Devante Parker plays so keep that in mind





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    Dodging Tilt Podcast on iTunes

  • #2
    Great write-up John. Looking forward to the pod!

    Comment


    • JohnHuish
      JohnHuish commented
      Editing a comment
      thank you! it should be up later tonight

  • #3
    I want to use Hogan at QB but there are too many cheap RBs I like. Going Brady, I guess.

    Comment


    • #4
      Some guys I think have value

      QB: Hogan, Watson, Brees
      RB: McKinnon, J.Allen, Kamara, Ingram, Ellington
      WR: Crowder, Cooper, Crabtree, Thielen, Hopkins
      TE: Reed

      too many cheap guys, have to spend up somewhere

      I'm not leaving 1k+ on the table.

      Comment


      • JohnHuish
        JohnHuish commented
        Editing a comment
        I have a decent number of these guys in my lineups!

    • #5
      &#%$&$^

      I was entered into a fantasydraft survivor (I survived the first week) but it gave me no alert and no e-mail so I just saw no lineup was entered

      and I played over $100 worth of fantasydraft contests today, with a lineup

      I had one made

      https://www.fantasydraft.com/ticket/5140946

      Comment


      • yisman
        yisman commented
        Editing a comment
        even the pros mess up

        papagates had a ton of entries into it and didn't fill any of them

    • #6
      Aaron Rodgers right shoulder injury.

      Comment


      • JohnHuish
        JohnHuish commented
        Editing a comment
        didnt see it, why did he get carted off with a shoulder injury?

    • #7
      I don't know, that's what they chose to do


      he took a hit and landed on his shoulder


      Jay Glazer reporting broken collarbone

      Comment


      • #8
        looks like I won't cash even in double ups

        I had McKinnon and Ingram


        problem is, Tom Brady, Jordan Reed, Andre Ellington, and Michael Thomas were all busts


        and Adam Thielen fell three yards short of the 100+ bonus

        Comment


        • #9
          Lineup 1 was gr8, I only play small amounts, but
          145.6 easily cashed and top 5% in GPP

          Comment


          • JohnHuish
            JohnHuish commented
            Editing a comment
            some people pivoted to ingram finished at like 160 something, hopefully we can continue it next week!

        • #10
          sad end to the week

          was planning on skipping MNF slate but some pick'em overlay caused me to rush in a lineup

          had very little time to compare the players


          foolishly used Mack over Henry

          Henry made sure you couldn't cash without him by breaking a 72 yard TD run with the game already over (also costing me my middle, I had TEN -6.5 and IND +7.5)


          #*^$*#^$*#

          I'm in several hundred dollars worth of pick'ems

          https://www.draftkings.com/contest/g...4?uc=870148814

          bunch of double ups like that

          Comment


          • JohnHuish
            JohnHuish commented
            Editing a comment
            wow... that boy Henry really stuck it to you jeez that would have been nice to hit both of those
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